The AI bubble of 202x is waiting to pop
With both of the big names (OpenAI & Anthropic) announcing their speedy IPO plans, the only sensible conclusion to draw is that the bubble is about to burst. The companies in question know it. Their investors know it. The public at large knows it. The investor class expects it but is looking at trajectory based on history. 1
The sentiment among the AI companies is being telegraphed loud and clear: "take the money and run". If they get to IPO before the reality catches up, someone else will be holding the bag. The owners and investors have cashed out. Collapsing stock price is no longer their problem. The world can burn.
With any luck, they will also have the money to buy good businesses for pennies during the crash, and own even more of the global production when the cataclysm eventually subsides.
Or as someone else distilled the whole thing: "The price of computer memory has tripled because a bunch of memory that hasn't been yet manufactured has been pre-ordered so it can be used in GPUs that aren't yet installed in data centers that haven't been built yet in order to supply a demand that doesn't exist so the companies can earn profits that won't happen."
- Surely there is always a bigger fool to sell to. ↩